Virginia’s Political Climate Takes a Surprising Turn

The political dynamics in Virginia, customarily a Democratic bastion, are beginning to sizzle. An unexpected deadlock between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden in a recent poll has left the Democratic party reeling.

A poll conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College reveals that both political figures have secured 42% support from Virginians. This stalemate signifies an unprecedented event in the annals of Roanoke College Polls.

The survey, carried out over the span of May 12 to May 21, 2024, included responses from 711 potential voters. When other possible candidates were considered, Biden marginally took the lead with 40% of votes against Trump’s 38%. The poll also offered insights into voter certainty and enthusiasm levels.

Reflecting on the elections of 2020, Biden won Virginia with a reassuring lead of 10 percentage points over Trump. This victory perpetuated a Democratic winning trend that has been consistent since 2008. Amidst the heated 2016 elections, Hillary Clinton triumphed over Trump with a lead of 5.3 percentage points.

Presently, according to this poll, a majority of voters appear quite confident about their choice with 64% expressing absolute certainty and another 28% indicating some degree of certainty. Voter enthusiasm is also reported to be high with over half (52%) expressing great excitement about voting and an additional quarter (27%) showing some enthusiasm. Top issues for voters include the economy (44%), immigration (14%), abortion (13%), foreign affairs (8%), and crime (5%).

The poll also delved into voters’ perspectives on the legitimacy of past elections. While 63% believe Biden’s 2020 victory was legitimate, 34% attribute his win to election irregularities. In contrast, almost three-quarters of respondents believe Trump’s 2016 victory was valid, with just 21% attributing his win to alleged collusion with Russia.

As anticipated, these perspectives are strongly influenced by party affiliations – with 94% of Republicans affirming Trump’s 2016 win as legitimate versus only 53% of Democrats. Likewise, while a large majority (91%) of Democrats accept Biden’s 2020 win as legitimate, only a small percentage (29%) of Republicans agree.

President Biden’s approval rating is currently at a meager 35%, with a disapproval rating matching his highest ever recorded figure from February – at a whopping 61%. Interestingly, while more than half the respondents (53%) believe Virginia is moving in the right direction, a significant majority (70%) feel the nation is veering off course.